Overseas Market Demand Continues to Release, Prebaked Anode Export Orders Show Sufficient Resilience [SMM Analysis]

SMM November 20:

According to customs data, China's prebaked anode exports totaled 212,700 mt in October 2025, up 25.41% YoY and up 3.09% MoM. Rough calculations show the average export price of prebaked anode was about $774/mt in October 2025, up 21.98% YoY and up 0.20% MoM. Cumulative prebaked anode exports from China reached 1.8572 million mt in 2025, up 6.17% YoY.

Domestically, prebaked anode exports in 2025 were concentrated in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Hunan. Shandong's cumulative exports totaled 1.4035 million mt, accounting for 76% of the total and ranking first; Jiangsu's cumulative exports were 153,400 mt, accounting for 8%; Hunan's cumulative exports were 141,400 mt, also accounting for 8%.

In terms of export destinations, China's main prebaked anode export countries in 2025 were Malaysia, Canada, and Indonesia, together accounting for about 50% of total exports. Exports to Malaysia totaled 413,500 mt (22% of total), down 11.02% YoY; exports to Canada were about 267,300 mt (15% of total), up 19.36% YoY; exports to Indonesia were about 245,400 mt (13% of total), up 71.89% YoY.

Looking at October 2025 prebaked anode export data, export volume increased by over 6,000 mt compared to the previous month. Specifically, orders to Iceland and Spain saw significant increases, each rising by over 10,000 mt, while orders to Oman and Indonesia also performed well, increasing by over 8,000 mt each, with a total increase exceeding 36,900 mt. However, orders to the UAE, Germany, and Canada declined substantially, with decreases each over 9,000 mt, resulting in a total reduction of about 31,100 mt.

Price side, prebaked anode export prices rose in October, with the average export price up 21.98% YoY. Supported by domestic raw material costs, prebaked anode prices continued to increase in November. According to the SMM survey, export order prices for prebaked anode maintained an upward trend in November, with adjustments mainly in the range of $30-35/mt. Overall, current prebaked anode export orders show sufficient resilience, and the price uptrend remains solid.

From the industry fundamentals perspective, China's prebaked anode exports have a solid foundation for growth. On one hand, Indonesia's aluminum capacity has entered a critical period of "utilizing existing capacity plus commissioning new capacity," directly driving a 71.89% YoY surge in China's exports to the country, making it a core growth market. On the other hand, the restart of a Spanish plant has generated phased procurement demand, and subsequent capacity commissioning will further release incremental space. Looking ahead, with the continued expansion of overseas aluminum capacity, coupled with China's comprehensive core advantages in the prebaked anode industry chain—such as cost control, capacity scale, and technical support—overseas markets are expected to continue driving steady growth in China's prebaked anode exports.